CP7 Regional Advancement Prediction Accuracy

In my previous post discussing the accuracy of The Magi, I ended with a warning:

To the teams that are predicted to be in the top three in their state: Cisco will decide your fate.

This was a well served warning, because this round of projections was far less accurate than the past round.

• 52% of projected wildcard teams were demoted. The odds of a team keeping their wildcard advancement was less than ½.
• The Magi correctly identified 221 teams as advancing, out of 280 total teams advancing to regionals. The margin of error was 21%. In other words, a team’s chances of being incorrectly predicted was 1/5.

See you in regionals!